Wheat futures surge as Russia backs out of grain export deal


Grain markets have reacted rapidly to information of Russia suspending involvement within the Black Sea grain export deal.

London’s May 2023 feed wheat futures peaked at £293/t shortly after markets opened on Monday 31 October, earlier than settling again to £288.05/t at noon.

This means costs are at the moment up by £6.05/t on week earlier ranges.

See additionally: Grain worth rollercoaster rolls on amid world uncertainty

The UN-brokered deal between Russia and Ukraine was signed on 22 July to create a secure export hall for grain.

The pact was signed at a gathering in Istanbul between Oleksandr Kubrakov, Ukraine’s minister of infrastructure, Russia’s defence minister Sergei Shoigu, and UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres.

More than 9.3m tonnes of meals commodities together with wheat, barley, maize, and sunflower oil had been exported from Ukraine between 1 August and 29 October, in response to UN knowledge.

Market response

Zoe Andrew, grain dealer at Frontier, stated: “Futures have traded larger this morning and Chicago traded 6% larger on the in a single day session.”

But whereas the market noticed a spike throughout the morning, it was additionally ready to see what occurs subsequent.

“The suspension from Russia is with instant impact, so it does impression vessels that had been already within the pipeline,” she stated.

One of the unknowns in the meanwhile is whether or not Russia will interact in negotiations to resume the deal or not.

Some vessels are as a result of be launched from Istanbul this morning, but it surely’s unlikely they are going to get new vessels into Ukrainian ports with out Russian approval, she added.

Global response

Despite the suspension of the deal, 12 ships carrying a complete of 354,500t of grain left Ukraine on Monday 31 October, in response to Reuters.

Turkish president Tayyip Erdogan, who was additionally concerned in brokering the settlement, stated Turkey will proceed to be concerned with Black Sea grain exports.

Mr Erdogan stated: “Our effort to ship this wheat to international locations dealing with the specter of hunger is clear. With the joint mechanism that we established in Istanbul, we contributed to the reduction of a worldwide meals disaster.”

Alternative land routes by mainland Europe are additionally being thought of for Ukrainian grain exports, in response to French agriculture and meals minister Marc Fesneau.