The USDA released multiple reports on Wednesday including the January WASDE (World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates Report).
Jon Driedger, vice-president with LeftField Commodity Research, summarized the report.
“Not a whole lot today that was outside of expectations,” he said. “If you look at December 1st stocks, maybe a shade on the heavier side for corn and soybeans than the market was looking for, but nothing really dramatic. A little heavier than a year ago for both corn and soybeans but kind of in line with expectations and nothing that shocks the market or really unexpected. In the case of wheat, stocks are down quite a bit from last year. I think all that is stuff that the market has been anticipating and building into their SMD’s and so in that sense, nothing overly surprising.”
Driedger says dryness in South America and concerns about the Brazil and Argentine soybean crops have been moving the soybean market recently, noting the USDA did make some adjustments downward in that way as well.
“I think in terms of the report itself, we’ll continue to digest some of the numbers. There’s a lot of information that came in in a short period of time here. I think as much as anything, this January report, it often sets the tone for trade over the next month or six weeks. I think now that it’s behind us, I think the market can kind of reaffirm numbers that they were expecting. Looking to South American weather, Chinese demand, some of the usual things and before too long we have our sights set on handicapping 2022 production. I think in that sense, it’s not so much the numbers itself, but the fact we’re on the backside of some of this uncertainty and markets will look forward.”