Predictable agricultural commerce situations wanted to handle world meals safety challenges

03/07/2018 – Global agricultural manufacturing is rising steadily throughout most commodities, reaching document ranges in 2017 for many cereals, meat sorts, dairy merchandise and fish, whereas cereal inventory ranges have climbed to all-time highs, based on an annual report from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO). The report stresses that agricultural commerce performs an essential position in selling meals safety, underscoring the necessity for an enabling commerce coverage setting.

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027 sees weakening development in world demand for agricultural commodities and meals, whereas anticipating persevering with productiveness enhancements within the sector. As a consequence, costs of fundamental agricultural commodities are anticipated to stay low for the approaching decade. The report, introduced in Paris by OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurría and FAO Director General José Graziano da Silva, attributes the demand slowdown to a deceleration of demand development in main rising economies, stagnating per capita consumption of staple meals and an extra gradual decline in world inhabitants development charges.

The Outlook finds that world agricultural and fish manufacturing is projected to develop by round 20% over the approaching decade, however with appreciable variation throughout areas. Strong development is predicted in creating areas with extra speedy inhabitants development, together with Sub-Saharan Africa, South and East Asia, and the Middle East and North Africa. By distinction, manufacturing development is predicted to be a lot decrease in developed international locations, particularly in Western Europe.

Launch of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook

Watch the press convention webcast

The Outlook tasks that the weakening of worldwide demand will persist over the approaching decade, sapped by declining inhabitants development, flat ranges of per capita consumption for staple meals and slowing demand development for meat merchandise. Declining demand development for meat merchandise will put a brake on the demand for cereals and protein meal utilized in animal feed.

With slower consumption and manufacturing development, agricultural and fish commerce are projected to develop at about half the speed of the earlier decade. Net exports are anticipated to extend from land-abundant international locations and areas, notably the Americas. Countries with excessive inhabitants development, specifically within the Middle East and North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa and in Asia, will see rising internet imports.

“While overall exports from countries and regions abundant in land are set to increase, many poorer countries with rising populations and limited land resources will be increasingly dependent on food imports to feed their people,” mentioned OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurría. “It will be essential that exporters and importers alike have access to an open and predictable trade policy environment.”

“The Green Revolution of the last century largely increased the world’s capacity to feed itself but now we need a sustainability revolution”, mentioned FAO Director-General José Graziano da Silva. “This includes tackling high-input and resource-intensive farming systems that impose a high cost to the environment. Soil, forests, water, air quality and biodiversity continue to degrade. We need to adopt sustainable and productive food systems that offer healthy and nutritious food, while also preserving the environment and biodiversity.”

Demand for cereals and vegetable oil for the manufacturing of biofuels is predicted to be largely unchanged over the forecast interval, in distinction with the previous decade, when biofuels growth led to greater than 120 million tonnes of further cereals demand, predominantly maize. With current insurance policies in developed international locations unlikely to assist biofuels growth, most demand development will come from creating international locations which have launched insurance policies favouring biofuel use. In specific, the usage of sugarcane for biofuel manufacturing is predicted to extend.

This 12 months’s version of the Agricultural Outlook features a particular chapter on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), which faces simultaneous problems with meals insecurity, rising malnutrition and administration of restricted pure assets. Undernourishment is concentrated in international locations riddled by battle and political instability. In different international locations of the area, meals demand is rising quick, due principally to inhabitants development. Very excessive consumption ranges of wheat along with a frequently rising sugar and fats consumption are resulting in an alarming unfold of chubby and weight problems within the area.

While the area’s agriculture and fish manufacturing is predicted to extend by 1.5% yearly, will probably be more and more challenged by each restricted land and water assets and the anticipated affect of extra frequent excessive climate-related occasions. As a consequence, import dependence will stay excessive for many commodities. The Outlook recommends that international locations within the area reorient insurance policies away from supporting water-thirsty cereals, towards better assist for rural improvement, poverty discount and farming of higher-value horticulture merchandise.

The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027 is free to learn on-line on the OECD iLibrary. You also can entry the symptoms in our interactive Compare Your Country software or obtain the uncooked information at www.agri-outlook.org.

For additional data, journalists can contact OECD Media Officer Lawrence Speer (+33 1 45 24 79 70) or the OECD Media Division (+33 1 45 24 97 00) or FAO Communication Officer Christopher Emsden, christopher.emsden@fao.org, +39 06 570 53291.


Working with over 100 international locations, the OECD is a worldwide coverage discussion board that promotes insurance policies to enhance the financial and social well-being of individuals around the globe.

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