OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2019-2028 – OECD

Global demand for agricultural merchandise is projected to develop by 15 p.c over the approaching decade, whereas agricultural productiveness development is anticipated to extend barely quicker, inflicting inflation-adjusted costs of the most important agricultural commodities to stay at or beneath their present ranges, in response to an annual report by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization.

This yr’s version of the OECD-FAO Agriculture Outlook, introduced in Rome right now, gives a consensus evaluation of the 10-year prospects for agricultural and fish commodity markets at nationwide, regional and world ranges.

“Global agriculture has evolved into a highly diverse sector, with operations ranging from small subsistence farms to large multinational holdings,” FAO Director-General José Graziano da Silva and OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurría write within the Foreword of the report. Along with offering meals, they added, right now’s farmers “are important custodians of the natural environment and have become producers of renewable energy.”

The Outlook tasks that yield enhancements and better manufacturing depth, pushed by technological innovation, will lead to increased output at the same time as world agricultural land use stays broadly fixed. Direct greenhouse fuel emissions from agriculture, in the meantime, are anticipated to develop by some 0.5 p.c yearly over the approaching decade, beneath the 0.7 p.c fee of the previous 10 years, and beneath the projected output development fee – indicating declining carbon depth.

At the identical time, new uncertainties are rising on prime of the standard dangers dealing with agriculture. These embody disruptions from commerce tensions, the unfold of crop and animal illnesses, rising resistance to antimicrobial substances, regulatory responses to new plant-breeding methods, and more and more excessive climatic occasions. Uncertainties additionally embody evolving dietary preferences in mild of well being and sustainability points and coverage responses to alarming worldwide tendencies in weight problems.

Population development, urbanization and life

Worldwide, the usage of cereals for meals is projected to develop by about 150 million tonnes over the outlook interval – amounting to a 13 p.c improve – with rice and wheat accounting for the majority of the enlargement. The most vital issue behind the projected development in meals use of staple merchandise is inhabitants development, which is anticipated to rise quickest in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.

“Regrettably, the most needy regions are expected to see slow income growth and hence only small improvements in their nutritional status,” warned FAO Assistant Director-General for Economic and Social Development Máximo Torero. “The findings point to an overall decline in undernourishment; however, at current rates of improvement, we would remain far off track from reaching the Zero Hunger target by 2030.”

“The Outlook makes abundantly clear that trade is critical for global food security,” mentioned OECD Director for Trade and Agriculture Ken Ash. “Regions that are experiencing rapid population growth are not necessarily those where food production can be increased sustainably, so it is essential that all governments support open, transparent and predictable agro-food markets.”

The report finds that consumption ranges of sugar and vegetable oil are projected to rise, reflecting the continuing development in the direction of ready and extra processed meals, notably in lots of rapidly-urbanizing low and middle-income nations. Concerns about well being and wellbeing, in the meantime, are prone to nudge quite a few higher-income nations in the direction of decrease consumption of purple meat and a shift from vegetable oils to butter.

In addition, the demand for feed crops is projected to outpace animal manufacturing development in nations the place the livestock sector is evolving from conventional to commercialised manufacturing techniques, whereas the usage of agricultural commodities as feedstock to provide biofuels is anticipated to develop primarily within the growing nations.

Trade in agricultural and fisheries commodities ought to develop over the approaching decade at round 1.3 p.c yearly, slower than over the previous decade (3.3 p.c common), as development in world import demand is anticipated to sluggish. On the export aspect, each Latin America and Europe are projected to extend their gross sales to international markets.

Special give attention to Latin America

This yr’s publication options a particular chapter on Latin American and the Caribbean, a area that accounts for 14 p.c of world manufacturing and 23 p.c of the world’s exports of agricultural and fisheries merchandise – a share anticipated to rise to 25 p.c by 2028.

Despite the spectacular development, the area is dealing with persistent challenges by way of meals safety, as many households are unable to afford the meals they want. The area additionally faces rising pure useful resource challenges. Ensuring a extra sustainable and inclusive pathway for future agricultural development will depend upon developments within the areas of diet, social and environmental safety and assist for livelihoods.

There are “strong growth opportunities” within the area to provide high-value fruit and veggies, which give higher alternatives for smallholders and more healthy diets for the inhabitants. Targeted insurance policies might assist farmers and customers reap these alternatives, whereas defending the area’s pure useful resource base, the report notes.

Data visualisation and knowledge

Use the information visualisation beneath to study extra about manufacturing, consumption, shares, imports and exports of key agricultural commodities across the globe. You may entry the total database and learn the publication on the OECD iLibrary.

 

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