Ag Canada Forecasts Fewer Canola Acres in 2022; More Wheat


Canadian producers will plant much less canola and barley however extra wheat and oats in 2022, in accordance with preliminary new-crop supply-demand estimates launched by Agriculture Canada on Friday.

Ag Canada sees canola planted space for this spring at 21.74 million acres, down about 3.2% from a yr earlier. At 8.15 million acres, new-crop barley space is projected down about 2% from the 12-year excessive achieved in 2021.

On the opposite hand, all wheat space planted space is anticipated to climb 5.8% to 24.82 million acres, with durum up roughly 9.5% to six.05 million and wheat (excl durum) rising 4.7% to 18.77 million. (Total winter wheat space is seen up 1% to 1.35 million acres and spring wheat seeded space up 6% to 17.42 million). Oat planted space for 2022 is estimated at 3.7 million acres, a rise of 8.3%.

Ag Canada attributed the projected decline in canola acres to a shift into various cereals, whereas tight old-crop provides, sturdy demand and excessive spot costs are anticipated to forestall the 2022 barley space from shrinking “too much,” regardless of sturdy competitors for acres from different crops. For durum, wheat and oats, new-crop planted space is predicted to be supported by sturdy pricing, and tight carry-in shares.

The authorities forecast assumes a return to extra typical rising climate and common yields in 2022 after final yr’s drought-related catastrophe. Canola output, for instance, is forecast to rebound by 60% to twenty.2 million tonnes, the third highest on file. However, new-crop canola ending shares are nonetheless projected to stay comparatively tight, rising simply 200,000 tonnes to 700,000. Canola costs are forecast to say no sharply in 2022-23, falling 33% from the file highs in 2021-22 to $800/tonne (monitor Vancouver) – however nonetheless the second highest on file.

For durum, 2022 manufacturing is predicted to extend to five.5 million tonnes (up from 2.65 million in 2021), in line with the final five-year common. Ending shares are anticipated to rise to 750,000 tonnes, up 67% from a yr earlier, whereas the typical value drops to $400/tonne from $700 (avg SK producer spot value). Wheat (exl durum) output is forecast 35% greater at 25.6 million tonnes, whereas ending shares are seen rising 1 million tonnes to 4 million. The common value, at $350/tonne (avg SK producer spot value), is projected down $60.

Barley manufacturing is predicted to extend by 52% to 10.59 million tonnes, with ending shares greater than tripling to 1 million tonnes. The season common 2022-23 barley value is pegged at $310 (I/S Lethbridge) down from $420 in 2021-22.

Total oat manufacturing projected to extend by 67% to 4.36 million tonnes, whereas ending shares climb 300,000 tonnes from the 2021-22 forecast to 500,000. At $400/tonne (CBOT close by futures), the typical value is seen falling $150 from the present advertising yr.

Dry pea space is forecast to marginally to simply over 4 million acres, whereas manufacturing rebounds 68% to three.8 million tonnes. New-crop ending shares are forecast at 150,000, up from 50,000 fror 2021-22. The common value is pegged at $450 (producer value FOB plant), down from $610. Lentil space is seen up 3% to 4.4 million acres with manufacturing rising 56% to 2.5 million tonnes. New-crop ending shares are anticipated to double to 100,000 tonnes, whereas the typical value drops to $725/tonne from $1,080 for the present yr.

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