2021 was eventful for the Canadian ag sector, with a severe drought in the West, floods in British Columbia, COVID lasting impacts and input costs rising. Even so, it was overall a good year for Canadian farms with a significant increase in farm revenues. Looking forward, we expect Farm Cash Receipts (FCR) to continue growing in 2022, although at a more moderate pace.
FCR are only half of the equation for measuring profitability. We must keep in mind that observing FCR growth does not necessarily mean that farm profits are increasing – especially this year with the rapid rise of farm input costs.
A look back at 2021 and forward to 2022
Statistics Canada is set to release complete FCR data for 2021 later this year. Our forecasts for 2021 incorporate StatCan FCR estimates for the first three-quarters of 2021 and data from various other sources. Table 1 compares FCR data for 2020 to FCC forecasts for 2021 and 2022. FCR were resilient to the numerous disruptions, grew in all provinces in 2021, and we forecast that they grew by 10.0% overall in Canada. We expect growth to continue in 2022, but at a lower rate (4.6%). We expand on the largest agricultural sectors below.